A Democratic sweep of Congress would likely end the CLARITY Act’s prospects for the next two years and create a less favorable political climate for crypto, TD Cowen Washington analyst Jaret Seiberg wrote in an election-day note to clients and Bitcoin Magazine.

Seiberg said TD Cowen’s expectations broadly matched polls and prediction markets pointing to Democratic gains in both chambers, while noting that polls taken about a month before an election can be more reliable than those published closer to voting day. He said Democrats would likely investigate President Donald Trump, including his crypto-related ties, making passage of the bill less likely.

The market-structure bill passed the House 294-134 in July 2025 but failed to advance in the Senate after a 49-50 cloture vote on Sept. 15. If it is not approved before the next Congress convenes on Jan. 3, the bill will expire and need to be reintroduced. Senator Angela Alsobrooks, who has taken part in negotiations, has said it could still pass during the lame-duck session. Seiberg’s note suggests that a Democratic-controlled Congress would be unlikely to prioritize it afterward.

The note identifies Senate control as particularly consequential for financial regulation. A Democratic majority could block Trump’s nominees and press him to appoint Democrats to seats at the FDIC, SEC and CFTC, agencies central to crypto policy. Seiberg also said a Senate win could make Senator Elizabeth Warren chair of the Banking Committee. He expects her to pursue measures including interest-rate caps, limits on bank buybacks and a government credit score, while noting she and Trump could find common ground on some proposals.

In the House, Representative Maxine Waters would lead Financial Services, with housing and closer scrutiny of the Federal Housing Finance Agency among her likely priorities, according to the note. Seiberg also said crypto’s influence in Congress could weaken further if Sherrod Brown wins his Ohio Senate race.

For banks, TD Cowen expects regulators to continue easing capital, liquidity and tiering rules regardless of which party wins. The note says divided government could, however, increase the risk of a government shutdown or a debt-ceiling standoff.

Bitcoin traded near $77,500 on Tuesday afternoon Eastern time, recovering from a morning dip to $76,300 but remaining about $2,000 below its level at the start of the month. Kalshi prediction markets put Democrats’ chances of winning the House at 94% and the Senate at 74%, figures that Seiberg’s assessment says may already be reflected in market expectations.

The CFTC separately cleared equity perpetual futures for U.S. exchanges on Tuesday. Seiberg’s note argues that under a changed congressional balance, agency actions and the officials appointed to oversee them could become especially important to crypto policy.

Sources: Bitcoin Magazine.