Bitcoin remained above its 100-day moving average on Monday as traders looked ahead to the US midterm elections, October employment data and earnings from Apple and Palantir.
Prediction market Kalshi placed the probability of Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives at 93.6% before Tuesday’s vote. President Donald Trump said he would use his veto power if Democrats gained control of Congress.
Bitcoin has finished the fourth quarter lower in each of the past three US midterm election years. It fell 17.3% in 2014, 43.5% in 2018 and 14.8% in 2022, although each period also coincided with a Bitcoin bear market. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said the typically weak performance during the fourth quarter of midterm years could create buying opportunities for investors who had previously sold.
Bitcoin was down 6.4% for the quarter on Monday after recording its weakest October since 2014, according to CoinGlass.
US economic data will add another source of volatility. September job openings are due Tuesday, while the October nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for Friday. Economists expect payrolls to increase by 65,000, following a gain of 29,000 jobs in September that came in below the 84,000 forecast.
Markets are also pricing in a 0.25-percentage-point Federal Reserve rate increase at the December meeting. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed the probability of that outcome remaining between 67% and 75% over the past month. Federal Reserve officials Beth Hammack and Michelle Bowman are scheduled to speak during the week.
The University of Michigan is also due to publish its preliminary November consumer sentiment survey, including inflation expectations. At the same time, about 20% of S&P 500 companies are expected to report results, with Apple and Palantir among the technology companies scheduled to release earnings after Monday’s market close.
The reports follow a technology-sector sell-off last week, when weak guidance revived concerns about artificial intelligence spending and profitability. Economist Mohamed El-Erian said markets had become particularly sensitive to technology headlines and were focused on capital expenditure, returns on investment and revenue growth.
Bitcoin closed October down 7.3% but continued to trade above a support area that has held since mid-August. TradingView data showed BTC/USD staying above last week’s low near $76,300. That level was close to the 100-day simple moving average, which had risen to $76,548, while Bitcoin’s 100-week exponential moving average stood at $77,759 at the monthly close.
Trader Rekt Capital compared Bitcoin’s current weekly chart with its recovery from the 2022 bear-market low. That earlier rebound formed an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, followed by a support retest, a brief decline below the level and a subsequent rally. Rekt Capital is watching to see whether Bitcoin makes a similar short-term move below the current right-shoulder support in the coming weeks.
Sources: Cointelegraph.