Prediction market traders favored Democrats taking control of Congress as Americans voted in the US midterm elections. As of 4:30 p.m. UTC, Kalshi put the chance of a Democratic sweep at 75%, while Polymarket priced it at 75.5%. An analysis by The Washington Post found that nearly $1.9 billion in election-related contracts had traded on the two platforms by Monday, a record for a midterm cycle.

Kalshi gave Democrats a 93% chance of winning the House and 75% in the Senate. Polymarket’s estimates were 94.5% for the House and 75.5% for the Senate. Those forecasts followed a recent miss in Brazil: the markets had favored Flávio Bolsonaro at roughly 80% shortly before incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the presidential runoff. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour reportedly noted that a 5% chance does not mean an outcome is impossible, according to CNBC.

The election could affect the crypto industry’s efforts to secure clearer regulation. In Ohio, crypto-aligned spending has focused on the Senate race between Republican Jon Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown, a critic of the industry. Defend American Jobs, part of the Fairshake super PAC network, reported spending $36.9 million to support Husted and $19.7 million to oppose Brown. Despite that spending, Kalshi and Polymarket each put Brown’s chance of winning at around 72%. The estimate was consistent with a final New York Times/Siena poll showing Brown ahead by 49% to 44%.

A Brown victory could complicate the industry’s legislative plans, particularly if Democrats take the Senate. He has been identified as a possible chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee, which oversees the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, though the position is not certain.

In Maine, the markets pointed to a possible result more favorable to crypto advocates. Kalshi gave Democrat Troy Jackson a 71% chance of defeating Republican Senator Susan Collins, while Polymarket put his chances at 71.5%. Collins was among four Republicans who voted against advancing the CLARITY Act in September. Stand with Crypto describes Jackson as strongly supportive of the industry.

Traders also differed from the close polling in several other states. In Alaska, Kalshi gave Democrat Mary Peltola a 71% chance of defeating Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, although a final New York Times/Siena poll had Peltola ahead by only two points. Both candidates have expressed support for crypto, according to Stand With Crypto. In South Carolina, Kalshi gave Republican Senator Darline Graham a 71% chance against Democrat Annie Andrews, despite a poll showing the candidates tied at 48%.

Iowa remained close on both platforms, with Polymarket giving Democrat Josh Turek a 52% chance after Republican Ashley Hinson had been favored for months. In Michigan, Kalshi put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed’s chance of defeating Republican Mike Rogers at 79%. In Texas, it gave Democrat James Talarico a 71% chance against Republican Ken Paxton; a final New York Times/Siena poll had Talarico ahead 50% to 43%. Paxton’s defeat would be a setback for the Digital Freedom Fund, which spent more than $81,000 supporting his campaign, though Talarico has also expressed support for crypto.

Polymarket’s conditional markets also looked beyond the election. As of 4:50 p.m. UTC, traders priced the chance of a US recession by the end of 2027 at 35% if Democrats swept both chambers, compared with 19% if they did not.

Sources: Cointelegraph.