Bitcoin traded near $77,500 on Tuesday morning as polls opened for the U.S. midterm elections, down about 0.6% for the day and roughly $30,000 below its price a year earlier, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data. The vote will determine control of Congress and could shape the future of the CLARITY Act, which passed the House in July 2025 but failed to advance in the Senate in September.
If Congress does not act before its new session begins on Jan. 3, the bill will expire and need to be introduced again. Kalshi prediction markets put the chances of Democrats taking the House at 94% and the Senate at 74%. Analysts at TD Cowen see a Democratic sweep as the most likely outcome and the least favorable for the crypto industry, while a divided Congress could leave room for a narrower agreement. CNBC reported that crypto groups spent more than $200 million on the midterms.
Bitcoin has been under pressure in recent weeks. It began November near $78,500 after October closed about 7% lower, marking a second consecutive October decline. On Oct. 28, the price fell below $80,000 after the Federal Reserve held rates and major technology companies reported weak earnings. The move triggered about $356 million in leveraged liquidations.
The following day, attackers whom the FBI attributed to North Korea stole about $6.3 billion from Binance hot wallets, described in the report as the largest crypto theft on record. Bitcoin fell about 4% on Friday, when more than $1.3 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643.3 million in outflows that day, their largest single-day total since June 25, according to SoSoValue data, followed by another $399 million on Monday.
After recovering to $78,491 late Sunday, Bitcoin slid again. Traders are watching support between $76,264 and $76,476, near the 200-day exponential moving average, with the September low of $74,967 below that. The 50-day EMA, near $80,800, is the first resistance level above. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index was at 37 on Monday, indicating fear.
The wider economic backdrop has also weighed on markets. The Fed kept its benchmark rate in a range of 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct. 28, with two officials dissenting in favor of an increase. Polymarket put the odds of a December hike at about 71%. September PCE inflation was 3.6% year over year, while third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate.
Oil prices have remained elevated amid tensions involving Iran. Brent crude fell 7.7% to $104.66 a barrel on Monday after Iran and the U.S. signaled openness to talks, then rose to around $106.60 on Tuesday following reports of a U.S. strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island. The report said disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has kept crude above $100 and added to inflation concerns.
Technology stocks have also declined: the Nasdaq fell 2.9% on Friday, its worst session since June, and lost 5.3% in October. Bitcoin has moved in line with technology stocks during the selloff, rather than acting as a counterweight.
Investors are looking ahead to the October jobs report on Friday, October CPI on Nov. 10 and the Fed’s next decision on Dec. 9. Binance is due to publish its next proof-of-reserves snapshot on Wednesday. Deribit’s DVOL index was near 36.5, indicating relatively calm options markets. The report also noted that Bitcoin fell in November during the two most recent midterm years, 2018 and 2022, though both periods were bear markets.
Sources: Bitcoin Magazine.